Daily Kos

Tag: Senate

How badly do you want to win? OR-Sen

Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:04:41 AM PDT

I know I'm not a famous blogger here at Daily Kos and my comments tend to garner only a smattering of recommends.  This diary is probably going to come across as whiney and I know that many readers DO give money to progressive candidates so I am not intentionally criticizing those people nor do I mean to criticize those who don't have money to spare but who dedicate themselves to electing Democrats thru activism.

I have been reading and posting here since about 2005.  I am not a wealthy person & the past year has been difficult for me.  but when the Front pagers & other posters here at Kos put out a call for contributions to their candidates, I try to help out.  Sometimes the amounts are small, but I do what I can because we need more progressives in Congress.

Yesterday, I decided to put out my own request for contributions for a progressive US Senate candidate, Jeff Merkley (OR-Sen), in what is considered one of the top Senate races in the country.  I offered & am offering to match contributions totalling up to $1,000 to people who contribute thru my Actblue page:  http://www.actblue.com/... .  Guess how many people stepped up to the plate?

Poll

In this cycle, I have given

0%0 votes
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25%2 votes
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37%3 votes
12%1 votes

| 8 votes | Vote | Results

Norm Coleman push polling

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:33:03 PM PDT

Dear Kossacks,

The politics season is truly upon us when we begin hearing that Republicans are push-polling.  Remember that push-polls are different that testing messages.  Message tests tend to be long polls, sometimes with nasty questions.  They are designed to judge your reactions.  Push polls are short and obviously far from factual.  They are intended to push people buttons on wedge issues or push vile rumors into circulation.

Tonight, we have the first evidence that the Norm Coleman campaign has started push polling ...

Electing a Progressive Senator (OR); Double your impact!  Remove Bush 'yes-man'

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 05:40:36 PM PDT

Are you interested in putting more *progressives* in the US Senate in the upcoming election?  Would you like to double your impact thru a matching contribution?  If so, read on!

For the past 12 years, Oregonians have been cursed with a do-nothing Republican Senator who currently polls at under 50% approval.  His name is Gordon Smith and his list of legislative accomplishments in the US Senate is as meager as his committment to George bush is great.

Following the Democratic landslide of '06, Smith furiously tried to create the appearance of distance between himself and the Bush administration without actually distancing himself in a meaningful way.  He's a pretend 'independent' Republican Senator who 'independently' votes with George Bush approx. 90% of the time.  He's sort of like a dumber, more inactive and almost-as-insulting-to-your-intelligence version of Norm Coleman.

LA-Sen: Is that Ensign I hear weeping?

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 03:26:19 PM PDT

Rasmussen. 8/14. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/9 results)

Landrieu (D) 53 (49)
Kennedy (R) 37 (44)

Landrieu has been up on the air the last several weeks, pounding the crap out of Kennedy, and the results are pretty obvious. Remember, this is the GOP's only chance to pick up a Senate seat this year. And their one and only chance is currently a 16-point deficit. Yup, it's one of those years for those guys.

I mean, this is where this race ranks, per Rasmussen's latest polling:

State Incumbent   Margin over challenger

 NM    Open (R)      -26
 VA    Open (R)      -21
 AK    Stevens (R)   -13
 CO    Open (R)       -8
 NH    Sununu (R)     -6
 GA    Chambliss (R)  +6
 OR    Smith (R)      +6
 MN    Coleman (R)    +7
 MS    Wicker (R)     +9
 KY    McConnell (R) +10
 NC    Dole (R)      +11
 TX    Cornyn (R)    +11
 ME    Collins (R)   +15
 LA    Landrieu (D)  +16

Rasmussen hasn't polled the Idaho or Oklahoma Senate races, or we probably would've seen both those states tighter than Louisiana. But per Rasmussen polling alone, there are 13 Senate races tighter than the Louisiana one. (South Dakota, their other supposed target, puts Republicans at a 25-point disadvantage against Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson.)

House and Senate Roundup, 8/19

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 02:46:19 PM PDT

NC-Sen: Kay Hagan is out with her second TV ad of the cycle:

Hagan is trying to close a relatively narrow gap between herself and incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Polling was tight prior to Dole's June ad blitz, and has seemed to trend slightly up for Hagan in recent weeks as she herself has hit the airwaves. Another positive bio ad such as this one should help the state Senator improve her statewide profile as the general election heats up.

CO-Sen: The DSCC can't get enough of "big oil" ads, it seems. Here's their latest, against Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer:

Meanwhile, the infamous Freedom's Watch is taking to the airwaves themselves, attacking Schaffer's Democratic opponent, Rep. Mark Udall.

Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group, launched ads Tuesday in Colorado hitting the Democratic Senate nominee, Rep. Mark Udall, for missing a key vote last month on energy policy to attend a fundraiser back home.

The 30-second ad, with amusing graphics and whimsical music, shows gasoline prices rising as a narrator refers to the Congressman as "Skip Udall."

Tim Pearson, deputy communications director for Freedom’s Watch, said the ad buy was "substantial," though he declined to provide specifics. It is airing in the Denver, Colorado Springs and Grand Junction media markets.

The IE buys are only going to get bigger and more frequent over the next few months, on both sides.

AK-Sen: Guess what! Ted Stevens thinks he's above the law!

In this case, he's apparently above the laws he himself helped to pass:

In 1989, Congress amended the Ethics In Government Act of 1978 to require members of Congress to file financial disclosure reports including income and honoraria exceeding $200. The bill gave the Attorney General the authority to take action against anyone who falsifies the financial disclosure report. Stevens joined the rest of the Senate in a voice vote in favor of the legislation.

Either he's forgotten about this law he supported...or he just doesn't care, now that it's applied to him. As he is trying to get his case thrown out of court:

Last week, lawyers for Senator Ted Stevens filed several motions asserting that Senators are above the law and deserve special treatment. Specifically, the defense explained that since the Department of Justice is part of the executive branch, they cannot investigate Stevens or interview his staff since they are part of the legislative branch. Stevens’ attorneys went as far to say that only Congress can discipline a Senator who violates the law by lying on the financial disclosure forms. However, Stevens voted for the legislation which established the financial disclosure forms. In essence, Stevens’ defense is that legislation he supported is now unconstitutional, and therefore the case should be dismissed.

This is not altogether surprising really. If Stevens had any respect for the rule of law, he wouldn't be in this nasty situation to begin with.

ME-Sen: Down East has a new article on the state of the Maine Senate race. In general, it's a sober analysis of what looks to be a pretty tough, though viable, race for Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, who faces off against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.

Allen starts at a disadvantage in name recognition, polling and money (though the DSCC has committed a great deal of money to this race, which should even the financial playing field somewhat). That said, Allen is quoted one major advantage: his ground game.

The grassroots is the only area where Allen has an undisputed edge in this race. The Democratic Party has 29 offices open across the state, with more opening every week, and has a dedicated and energized volunteer base, due in part to the excitement caused by Barack Obama's presidential campaign. The Republican Party has just four offices and many fewer volunteers.

The Democrats are working on registering thousands of new voters and making sure they get to the polls, an effort that could shift the political landscape in the Senate race. However, with less competitive races in Maine for president and for the other congressional seats, which democrats will likely win, Maine's ticket-splitting voters may choose to make Collins the one Republican they support. In the latest poll, 29% of Democratic voters abandoned Allen.

It's likely that there will be at least a decent number of ticket splitters this fall in Maine, but

House Races

FL-24: Republican Rep. Tom Feeney must be awfully nervous about his electoral prospects against former Democratic state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.

Because Feeney has paid for robocalls across the district in support of Kosmas' primary opponent, fellow Democrat and 2006 loser Clint Curtis.

The third-term lawmaker from Oviedo -– who defeated Curtis in 2006 -– has paid for "tens of thousands" of robo-calls to Democratic voters on behalf of Curtis, who is running again for the House District 24 seat, this time as an underdog in the Democratic primary against former state lawmaker Suzanne Kosmas.

In calls to Central Florida residents, a volunteer for the Feeney campaign lauds Curtis and calls him the "only Democrat taking on Tom Feeney that has consistently opposed the war in Iraq." At the end of the call, the female volunteer said the calls were "paid for by Tom Feeney for Congress."

This isn't the first time that Feeney has tried to help a challenger. In a release sent a few weeks ago, Feeney touted independent candidate Gaurav Bhola as "the only candidate talking sense" at a candidate debate that Feeney never attended.

A clip of the robo call was provided by the Kosmas campaign. Paul Dunn, her campaign manager, called it one of Feeney’s "dirty tricks" and said it was proof that Feeney fears Kosmas, who has more money on hand than the incumbent.

Yes, I think it's safe to say that Feeney's running scared. Given that he's mucking about in Democratic primaries, you know.

Fortunately, given Curtis' bankroll of $7,000, it's highly unlikely Feeney will get his wish.

TX-07: Democrat Michael Skelly's newest ad:

OH-02: Daredevil Jean Schmidt's latest scandal: she and her sisters own a multi-million dollar property in Cincinnati, via their late father's real estate company, on which they pay all of $95 per year in property taxes.

For how come? Because they grow a few thousand dollars' worth of soybeans on the property. The property isn't primarily used as farmland...but naming it as such saves them a boatload, it seems:

The Schmidt campaign vehemently denies any wrongdoing (they do pretty much everything vehemently, in fact), and legally, they're almost certainly covered. Still, as the video notes, it sure doesn't look good.

NY-26: Finally, the first ad from Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers:

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

New Poll: A Worried Middle Class Supports Progressive Policy, But Not Sure How Their Own Reps Voted

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:35:40 AM PDT

Cross-posted from DMIBlog

Today the Drum Major Institute (DMI -- where I'm director of research) released its first annual Survey on the Middle Class and Public Policy.  The nationwide poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, aimed to learn how those Americans who see themselves as middle class (the vast majority of us, it turns out) think about the direction of the country, public policy ideas that could improve the nation, and their relationship with their own elected representatives. What we found were middle-class households filled with "fearful families": Americans worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, but not nearly so divided on issues of public policy as the typical media reports of a country divided by red and blue might lead us to believe. In fact, there’s broad bipartisan support for a range of progressive policies.

OR-Sen: So Much for Smith's Enviro Credibility

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 09:11:18 AM PDT

In the really green part of Oregon, Gordon Smith has a long tradition of presenting himself as the moderate, anti-drilling, good guy. In fact, one of his infamous ads in which he tries to pretend he's been endorsed by Obama, trumpets

"Who says Gordon Smith helped lead the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama!"

Clean environment? Tell that to the Oregon Department of Environmental Equality, not to mention the folks in Weston, OR.

For the second time in about a year, wastewater from the frozen-foods plant owned and operated in Eastern Oregon by the family of U.S. Sen Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) overflowed into a nearby creek in violation of state environmental regulations....

Smith Frozen Foods has a long history of wastewater violations.... According to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, an employee of Smith Frozen Foods contacted the state agency on July 29 (while the plant was processing corn) to report an overflow from the company's wastewater lagoon that "resulted in a milky discharge to Pine Creek."

...[T]he incident is considered a serious "Class 1" violation, meaning it "can harm aquatic life, contaminate drinking waters, and impair recreational, commercial and agricultural uses of water."...

On July 30, 2007, at the height of last year's corn season, Smith Frozen Foods had a similar violation. That violation resulted in a $3,000 fine — a small sum compared with the $25,000 DEQ fine in 1992 for another infraction. Between those two events, Smith Frozen Foods has been cited or fined by the DEQ more than a handful times.

After one of those fines in the early 1990s, Smith received $766,000 in state and federal grants to bring his plant into compliance with environmental regs. And then he had the gall to run his first, losing campaign against Wyden on "the principles of less government and unfettered free enterprise."

The most recent spill (there have been six or seven in the past 15 years) is hardly the same scope as the massive fish kill of 2002 that Smith helped engineer with Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, an environmental and economic disaster that killed over 60,000 fish, including naturally raised Chinook and endangered Coho salmon.

But it does put the lie to Smith's claim that he's a friend to the environment. And it's one of the reasons Oregon's environmental and conservation communities are lining up behind Jeff Merkley.

LIVE, online, interactive ID-Sen Debate: Ask your questions NOW!

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:19:24 PM PDT

Thanks to technology, we're making history, again, tonight here in Idaho.

Beginning at 9:30pm ET tonight, Independent Rex Rammell and I will be having the first debate of the general election campaign for U.S. Senate here in Idaho -- and for the first time in Idaho history, we'll be broadcasting the debate on the internet and taking questions live from folks like you watching it online, right here at DailyKos and across the internet.

Tonight's forum is a new kind of debate that uses the power of technology to put the debate in your hands. So please, join us below the fold to watch the debate and ask your questions in real-time starting at 9:30pm ET!

UPDATE (8:45pm MT): I've now updated the diary with a copy of the video from tonight's debate.  Thanks so much for everyone from DailyKos who tuned in and participated!

GA-Sen: Martin (D) nipping at Chambliss' heels

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 06:07:44 PM PDT

Last week, the DSCC released a poll showing Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin, riding the wave of a convincing primary runoff victory, trailing Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss by only six points.

The smallest margin recorded in any poll, prior to the DSCC's stunner, had been the 11-point Chambliss lead which Rasmussen demonstrated in July.

Rasmussen's latest, however, confirms the DSCC poll, and suggests that Georgia's Senate race is highly competitive right now.

Rasmussen. 8/14. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/17 results)

Chambliss (R) 48 (51)
Martin (D) 43 (40)

With leaners included, Chambliss leads 50% to 44%.

As this is independent confirmation of the DSCC's previous poll, it can probably be taken more or less at face value. It reflects a pretty healthy primary bump for Martin, one which may well fade a little as Chambliss uses his formidable war chest to go on the air.

But if Martin - the beneficiary of healthy name recognition from his 2006 bid for lieutenant governor - can stay relatively competitive financially, and avoid being drowned on the airwaves, he has an outside shot at winning this race. Martin's success will also depend in part on Democratic efforts to register hundreds of thousands of new voters in Georgia. The Obama campaign has made this a priority, and in a close race, it could prove to be a boon to Martin's candidacy.

We're quite fortunate to have a candidate like Jim Martin in the race. He's essentially turned a no-hope race into a serious challenge, and is a candidate progressives can be proud of. Georgia's Senate race was barely on the radar just a few months ago, but it has become one of the top sleeper races this cycle.

With this poll added to the pile, Pollster's average now indicates an eight-point race, with Chambliss averaging 50% to Martin's 42.3%

Georgia's Senate race can now be considered "Likely Republican". Chambliss has a big money advantage (though Martin's own fundraising has been fairly good in a fairly short time, and the DSCC has a good bit of money themselves). Given Chambliss' money, Georgia's red tilt, and Chambliss' lead, he has to be favored.

But Chambliss has a legitimately tough race on his hands, and that should warm the hearts of Democrats across the nation.

On the web:
Jim Martin for U.S. Senate

AK-Sen: Stevens cruising in primary

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 05:31:15 PM PDT

Ivan Moore for the Anchorage Press and KTUU. 8/9-12. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% for overall sample, ~6.2 for primary samples. (7/30-31 results)

Republican Senate primary

Stevens 62.7 (59)
Cuddy 20.4 (19)
Vickers 6.6 (-)


Senate general election

Stevens (R) 38.5 (35)
Begich (D) 55.5 (56)

Stevens is surging back! Kidding. Begich has locked in support, while Stevens rebounds slightly (or maybe it's just float in the MoE).

In the House:

Republican primary

Young (R) 45.9
Parnell (R) 40.4
LeDoux (R) 7.4


Democratic primary

Berkowitz (D) 58.0
Benson (D) 24.1


House general election

Young (R) 40.6
Berkowitz (D) 51.3

Parnell (R) 46.0
Berkowitz (D) 41.7

The good news is that Berkowitz is competitive with Parnell, but the really good news we're all hoping for is a Young victory in the GOP primary next Tuesday. Luckily, with the fragmented multi-candidate field, Young doesn't have to reach 50 percent. But with the massive MoE for these primary sub-samples, the GOP House primary is scary tight.

But the overall picture looks fantastic for Alaska Democrats, and with scandal depressing GOP fundraising in the state, the future is only slated to get better.


On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress

Voices from Nebraska

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 05:14:02 PM PDT

I made a video last weekend featuring some Nebraskan voices that I'd like to share with you now.

These are real Nebraskans expressing their support for Scott in their own words:

If you support the 50 State Strategy, I don't think I need to tell you that these Nebraskans are counting on you...

MN-Sen: Coleman's lead cut in half, per SUSA

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 04:51:16 PM PDT

Up to this point, polling results on the Minnesota Senate race over the past several months had fallen into two categories:

  1. Rasmussen polling, and
  1. everybody else's polling.

Rasmussen has consistently been the most favorable to DFL and Orange to Blue candidate Al Franken, showing a consistent 2-3 point race with incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman. In several polls, Franken actually showed a small lead.

Other pollsters, however, such as SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac, had shown the race in something of a holding pattern, with Coleman enjoying a consistent double-digit lead.

SUSA's most recent poll, however, has broken the cycle.

SurveyUSA. 8/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (7/11-13 results)

Coleman (R) 46 (52)
Franken (D) 39 (39)

SurveyUSA has not seen Franken's own numbers change much since their February poll, when he drew 46% support. Other than that, he has fluctuated between 39% and 41% support, as he does now.

Coleman, on the other hand, has shown a significant drop for the first time in SUSA's polling.

The other most recent poll on this race comes from Rasmussen, and it is in line with the rest of their Minnesota polling. It shows the two candidates tied at 45%, with Coleman leading 49-46 with leaners included. Coleman is actually gaining in that poll; the numbers were reversed in July.

So does this SUSA poll - the first one to really break a trend - indicate a tightening race? It's possible. Over the last month, Franken has shaken up his campaign staff, released a few strong ads, and hopefully dealt with the "back taxes" flap once and for all. Meanwhile, Coleman himself has taken heat over a sweetheart deal he received on his DC apartment, a deal potentially in violation of Senate ethics rules.

This poll - and the seven-point gap it shows - is directly in line with Pollster's average, which also indicates a seven-point Coleman lead (50% to 43%, on average).

If that is accurate, and Coleman's edge is in high single digits, this is still a very competitive race. With Coleman and Franken both exceptional fundraisers, there is still a lot of money to be spent on this race and a lot of ads yet to be aired. It is also still unclear how dramatic an effect the presidential race will have downticket in Minnesota.

It's been a long time coming, but a pollster other than Rasmussen now gives Democrats reason for optimism in Minnesota.

On the web:
Al Franken for Senate
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

OK-Sen: Rice slices Inhofe's lead in half

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 02:02:59 PM PDT

The DSCC has released a new poll which shows Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice closing swiftly on incumbent Senator James Inhofe, in the wake of Rice's first statewide ad buys.

Since the DSCC's last poll two months ago, Rice has cut Inhofe's lead in half, and trails now by single digits, with Inhofe teetering on the magical 50% re-elect line. With June numbers in parentheses:

Inhofe (R) 50 (53)
Rice (D) 41 (33)

This is a partisan poll commissioned by the DSCC, but the June results from this same poll were almost directly in line with independent polling on the race conducted around the same time (in this case, Research 2000's poll commissioned by Daily Kos). So there's reason to believe that the pollster (Benenson) is accurate.

Andrew Rice has purchased his first statewide ads within the last month, so it stands to reason that his own numbers (and favorability) would have increased during this time (while Inhofe's numbers stayed more or less constant).

Rice's name ID is still only at 52%, while Inhofe's is near universal. In addition (and unsurprisingly), Oklahomans who do know Inhofe don't appear to especially care for him. As the Rice campaign noted in a Daily Kos post earlier in the day:

For the first time in the course of our race, Jim Inhofe’s job disapproval rating is lower than his approval (46% Approve; 47% Disapprove).  More and more Oklahomans are realizing that after 22 years in Washington, Jim Inhofe has lost his way.  He’s not putting Oklahomans first; he’s voting in line with his party and for the benefit of special interests that have filled his campaign war chest.

And we still have room to move.  In our last poll, Sen. Rice’s name ID was only 29%.  It’s now at 52%.  For those who know Sen. Rice enough to form an opinion of him, their opinion is 3:1 favorable over unfavorable.  Again, we’ve known it all along – when Oklahoma voters get to know Andrew Rice, they support him.

We went head-to-head with Sen. Inhofe on TV, and we more than halved his lead over Andrew Rice.

Andrew Rice is a special candidate, and he has a unique opportunity to take out a genuine troglodyte of a Senator. The apparent success of his statewide ad campaign has already demonstrated the profound effect that just a little bit of money can have on this race, and the potential that his candidacy has to bring us a progressive Senator from one of the nation's reddest states.

So go to the Orange to Blue ActBlue Page, and help Andrew Rice amass the resources he needs to stay in this fight, and win.

On the web:
Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

Former Vice President Al Gore endorses Bob Tuke for U.S. Senate

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 01:46:41 PM PDT

From Former Vice President Al Gore:

"Today, I announced my endorsement of Bob Tuke to be the next U.S. Senator from my home state of Tennessee. I have known Bob for a long time, and I am glad to call him a close friend ... "

House and Senate Race Roundup: Big Oil Edition

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 01:22:16 PM PDT

CO-Sen: Bob Schaffer, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, apparently thinks we ought to pity the poor oil companies, as the federal government is raking in the cash off of their hard labor.

Pity Big Oil? You couldn't make this stuff up.

MS-Sen: The DSCC has released a new ad against interim Senator Roger Wicker ("interim" Senator is their term, and I rather like it), also related to gas prices.

Meanwhile, Tim Kalich of the Greenwood Commonwealth suggests that Republicans are trying to use the investigative and prosecutorial power of the Justice Department to swing the election Wicker's way.

When the Democrats and their attorneys began claiming last year that the Bush administration was using its prosecutorial might to target opposition candidates and their major financial supporters, I greeted the allegation with a skeptical eye.

I’m not so sure anymore.

This past week’s developments in the four-year-old investigation into the failed Mississippi Beef Processors plant seem timed to help derail Democrat Ronnie Musgrove’s bid to snatch one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats from Republican hands.

Shades of Don Siegelman.

OR-Sen
: The DSCC has another "oil" ad out, this one nailing Oregon Republican Gordon Smith.

Evidently the DSCC is working with a theme here.

AK-Sen: The Washington Post reports on the changing political dynamic in Alaska; thanks in part to a boatload of Republican scandals in the state, the longtime GOP stronghold may be shifting back to the Democratic Party at long last.

"We come here for the edge, and we love the edge. But this is ridiculous," said Francine Lastufka Taylor, a former musician and arts administrator who arrived from "outside" in 1961. "The place was so young, and there was a lot of nut cases, but they weren't in charge."

"Crazy politics up here," declared a smiling Howard Enbysk, 74, retired from the Air Force. "It's different."

It might be even more different after Nov. 4. The relentless tattoo of scandal -- coupled with the drag of presumptive GOP presidential nominee John McCain's tepid local support and a Democratic field offering a new generation of political leadership -- threatens a Republican stranglehold on Alaska politics that dates to the oil boom of the 1970s.

"I expect us to have, for the first time in 28 years, at least one Democrat in the congressional delegation," said Gerald McBeath, a political scientist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. "I expect (Senator Ted) Stevens's chances of survival are better than those of (Congressman Don) Young."

If Stevens is the Republican more likely to survive of the two - and he trails Democrat Mark Begich by an average of 18 points - things are very, very bad for Rep. Don Young.

House Races

IL-18: Aaron Schock - the fresh young face of ultra-conservatism - is apparently spewing the same old tired bullshit that Republicans have been throwing at Democrats since the era of Tail Gunner Joe McCarthy.

Which is to say, "The Democratic Presidential nominee is a SOCIALIST!"

"The last time we had this level of socialism being proposed and inexperience at the helm was Jimmy Carter," said Schock (who was born four months after Democrat Carter left office in 1981).

What level of socialism?

"Well, he’s promoting what I would term a government takeover of the health system," Schock said. "He has said he wants to mandate free college tuition for every student in America.

"Unlike Ted Kennedy (he meant Jack Kennedy, of course) who said, don’t ask what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country ... he (Obama) says, we’re the wealthiest country in the world; you should get this, you should get that. You’re entitled to this, you’re entitled to that. To me, that’s a move toward socialism."

Schock, of course, is not good with specifics. Understandable, since he's specifics don't support his nonsensical ramblings.

"I’m familiar with what his work was here at the state Capitol, and to me, the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior," Schock said. "And he has supported what I would consider to be socialistic moves on health care as a state senator."

"I don’t remember the exact bills," he said.

Of course you can't, Aaron. Of course you can't.

Where does the Golden Boy get these talking points? Straight from the top, of course.

"Do you think hes a socialist, Barack Obama?" Helling asks.

McCain responds with a with a shrug, "I don't know."

Filth.

(H/T: ProgressIllinois)

NC-08: An internal poll from the campaign of endangered GOP Rep. Robin Hayes shows him at exactly 50% in his reelection campaign against Democrat Larry Kissell, who came within a few hundred votes of upsetting Hayes in 2006.

Hayes (R) 50
Kissell (D) 40

The good news for Kissell is that this was taken before his first ads went up. In addition, the poll pegs his name recognition at a mere 25%, which seems ridiculously low for someone who ran a fairly high-profile race last cycle. As SSP notes, independent polling has put Kissell's name recognition at 52%, which seems much more reasonable.

AZ-03: Apparently, John Shadegg believes that the oil market actually listens to his bizarre ramblings and pays attention to ridiculous Republican stunts on the House floor.

Seems the market is a living, breathing entity. Who knew?

Fortunately, there is a sane candidate in this race: Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord.

MO-09: Swing State Project diarist RBH has an excellent analysis of primary voting in Missouri's 9th District - one of the hottest races in the Midwest this cycle - and of what to expct from the general-election matchup between progressive Democrat Judy Baker and right-wing Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer.

One of the issues to emerge quickly as the general-election campaign gets under way has been SCHIP expansion. Naturally, Baker is all for it:

Judy Baker, the Democratic candidate for the Ninth District, said yesterday that expanding SCHIP would be the first legislation she sponsors if she prevails in the 25-county district.

"The expansion of the SCHIP program represents a truly common-sense and bipartisan solution that is plaguing many families, especially those in our Ninth Congressional District," Baker said at a news conference at the Columbia/Boone County Health Department. "And I pledge to you I will fight this fight until we win."

And Luetkemeyer is not digging it:

Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican candidate for the Ninth District seat, said through a spokesman he would have voted against the legislation that was before Congress in 2007.

Shocking.

NJ-05: Very funny video from the campaign of Democratic candidate Dennis Shulman, as they go after Republican incumbent Scott Garrett for, yes, his ties to Big Oil.


AL-02
: Democratic candidate Bobby Bright has scored a major endorsement in his race to take the R+13 seat of retiring Republican Terry Everett.

From Doc's Political Parlor:

Republican Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas crossed the aisle today to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s Democratic bid for the 2nd Congressional District seat. Thomas is the John McCain campaign’s Mayoral Chair for the state of Alabama, has served on the Republican Executive Committee of Houston County, and says that he has never voted for a Democrat on a national level. Thomas was also a member of the Wiregrass’s "unofficial Congressional Selection Committee" that united early behind the candidacy of Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in an effort to ensure that the next Representative from AL-02 was from the Wiregrass.

Dothan is the largest municipality in the district after Montgomery which itself is divided between the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts.

Dothan is not only one of the critical population centers of the district (along with Bright's own base of Montgomery), but it is former Republican candidate Harri Anne Smith's hometown.

It appears that Smith's nasty primary with ultimate Republican nominee Jay Love has left scars.

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

CO-Sen: Government Getting Rich Off of Oil Companies, Sez Schaffer

Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 02:16:12 PM PDT

This is the kind of things Republicans only say when they think they're not being recorded.

"But because prices are soaring, the reality is the federal government is raking in a bunch of cash right now on the backs of energy producers."

Those poor, poor energy producers. With all the money we're raking in from them, maybe the energy companies can just pay for that whole war in Iraq. Wasn't that how it was supposed to work, anyway?

AK-Sen: More Trouble for Stevens

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 07:01:08 PM PDT

This has been a very bad week for Ted. First there was his sorry fundraising and new evidence against him in his corruption case. Then late in the day yesterday came two more damaging stories.

First, prosecutors released new evidence that there was a quid-pro-quo in his relationship with VECO. While the case is build around the fact that he accepted gifts and failed to disclose them, the new information shows the favors went both ways.

But in new court filings last night, the feds laid out evidence from wiretaps and seized emails to show in detail some favors Stevens allegedly did for the company. Prosecutors made the disclosure in a motion seeking to introduce the information at Stevens' trial set for September.

When Stevens was indicted, the prosecutors were questioned why they weren't making bribery charges and they implied that the statute of limitations had passed, though they didn't say that explicitly. The release of this information, though, does fairly clearly show that this case is about the bribery.

But that wasn't the only bad news for Ted yesterday. In another set of court documents filed Thursday, prosecutors had an e-mail from Stevens to a "Person A," who turned out to be a witness that was to appear before the grand jury.

By mid-May 2007, Stevens learned that Person A had been subpoenaed to testify before a grand jury in D.C. On May 17, 2007, Stevens sent Person A two emails that discussed Person A's upcoming grand jury testimony. In the first email, Stevens told Person A that "I hope we can work something out to make sure you aren't led astray on this occasion."

In the second, Stevens was more explicit: "don't answer questions you don't KNOW the answers to."

Maybe he thought the Tubes wouldn't keep a record of the Internets he sent to try to influence a witness, something the judge in his case is likely to take a rather dim view of.

Al Franken's campaign is doing fine

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 09:31:18 PM PDT

As I cross path with folks I know or acquaintances, they often express their worry about Al Franken's campaign.  I have been telling them that everything is going fine.  Al is running the exact right kind of race.  He's got a massive volunteer operation, he's running a grassroots campaign, he's raising ****loads of money and he's the right kind of personality to take on Norm Coleman, i.e., a DFLer with some personality.

Reactions vary from "I hope you're rights" to eye rolls to rants about everything they perceive Al to be doing wrong.  I think DFLers expect Al to be leading by 15% like Amy Klobuchar was by this time two years ago.  That's just unrealistic.  Amy was running for an open seat, Al is battling an incumbent Republican Senator with all the advantages that come with it.

So what exactly do I mean when I say Al is running the right kind of campaign?


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