UPDATE More Zogby data available now. Obama loses 8 points among women? More below the fold.
The new LA Times poll shows Obama leading McCain 45% to 43%. This lead is down from the June LA Times poll that showed Obama leading McCain 49% to 37%. The LA Times and the Republicans would have you believe that the race is tightening and that McCain's negative attacks on Obama are working.
What may be the real story here is that independents are breaking for Obama. In June, independents favored McCain 44% to 36%. In the new August poll, independents favor Obama 46% to 35%.
Now if you've been paying attention you are asking yourself, "If Obama went from -8 to +11 with independents, then how did the race get closer?"
The answer is distribution of party affiliation, my dear reader.
If you follow me below the fold, I will deconstruct the math, hit the Republicans over the head with their own numbers, show that the race hasn't tightened at all, and see how much McCain's slime has hurt McCain's favorables..
Republicans certainly see the writing on the wall. Sitting congressional Republicans are finding new scheduling "conflicts" with the Republican Convention and are choosing not to attend. NRCC Chairman Tom Cole is telling Republican congressional candidates it would be a "waste of time" to attend the convention.
The stench from this campaign's rotting corpse is driving them away. Notably we've seen...
[I]t is important to stress that those people hired under the circumstances described in the report have been, and will be, regularly evaluated... If anyone – whether Democrat or Republican, whether appointed through a flawed process or a flawless one – is found to be handling or deciding cases based on politics, and not based on what the law and facts require, there will be a swift and unambiguous response.
Color me unimpressed. This is the same employee evaluation process that the Department hid behind in the political firing of six US attorneys. Now I'm supposed to believe it will protect our interests against politically motivated hiring?
Campaign advisors are trying to take away McCain's cell phone. The candidate had too much access to the outside world they say. Maybe they should replace McCain's phone with one of these Samsung Jitterbug phones. It has just 3 buttons. And it could help solidify the "Honey-how-does-this-goll-darn-thing-work" demographic.
(and, yes, I did pimp this picture in Open Thread earlier today)
Limiting McCain's cell phone usage should help cut down on campaign expenses, considering the campaign's problem raising money. He would probably take all those milky roll-over minutes from AT&T, lactose intolerant or not.
Maybe they could sell this phone in the McCain store and take a cut of the monthly charges to help raise funds. But with Robert Wood Johnson bailing out the financing of the GOP convention to the tune of $10 million today, maybe the McCain campaign needs to start thinking even more... creatively... about fundraising...
It's a play straight out of the Republican playbook - engage in saber rattling with an out-of-control, UN defying regime, all in an effort to establish access to oil.
John McCain's Drill Here, Drill Now policy is going nowhere with Congress. With McCain's electoral prospects looking so bleak, he can't count on being in the Oval Office to drill. So it's time to go to the playbook.
Look for McCain to start drafting plans to topple the Bush regime. But first, he'll needs a UN resolution to get the ball rolling.
McCain will likely seize on America's defiance of UN resolution 61/11, which calls for an end to the US economic embargo of Cuba, as his rationale for war. But remember, this isn't about Cuba. It is simple Republican paint-by-numbers policy: UN resolution + Oil = War.
We know it seems outrageous, but we can't be seen as flip-flopping on foreign policy. If the success of Iraq means anything, it means consistently applying the principles defining our foreign policy. American access to American oil requires American compliance with UN resolutions. If America won't comply, there will be serious consequences. America's oil interests must be protected.
The Wall Street Journal opined Friday that Obama may be too skinny to be president.
But in a nation in which 66% of the voting-age population is overweight and 32% is obese, could Sen. Obama's skinniness be a liability? Despite his visits to waffle houses, ice-cream parlors and greasy-spoon diners around the country, his slim physique just might have some Americans wondering whether he is truly like them.
Why does this matter? Oh that's right, thanks for reminding us WSJ.
Sen. McCain cannot lift weights due to injuries he suffered as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.
So it's not that Obama is too skinny to be president. It's that he hasn't been a prisoner of war.
My sources have given me a sneak peek at what the WSJ is working on. Let's take a look at what the Wall Street Journal's next few proposed op-ed pieces will look like.
I'm not of the conspiracy theorist persuasion, but the modus operandi of the Bush Administration makes me question the the actions and motives of my government in ways I never would have imagined.
First, Hersh expands upon his New Yorker story at a journalism conference, disclosing one idea tossed about in Cheney's office to provoke war with Iran - dressing up Navy SEALs as Iranian Al Quds Forces to fire upon US ships in the Gulf.
Now, Greenwald reminds us of the false information given to ABC News by government officials linking Iraq to the anthrax attacks.
And I am left questioning the circumstance surrounding the apparent suicide of Bruce Ivins.
So where exactly do I go for my tinfoil hat fitting...
President Bush made a statement to the press in the Rose Garden yesterday flanked by all his Cabinet officials urging Congress to lift the ban on new offshore drilling.
During the past week, Congressional Republicans have blocked efforts to pass legislation releasing oil from the Strategic Reserves, curbing speculation in the energy markets, and assisting low-income Americans with utility bills. Republicans want to hold legislation hostage until Democrats agree to more offshore drilling.
Democrats need an offensive strategy to knock down this effort before it becomes politically impossible to oppose it.
Are you in need of a good laugh? Go check out William Kristol's column in today's New York Times.
Kristol imagines a President McCain mocking the media for leaving his campaign for dead and then reveling in his brilliant campaign strategy to run against the Do Nothing Congress.
Yep folks, that's right. Kristol sees McCain winning the White House by running against Congress.
In 1948, a Republican Congress, which had taken power two years before with great expectations after a decade and a half of Democratic control, had become unpopular. Harry Truman lambasted it as a no-good, do-nothing Congress — and he rode that assault to the White House. We’ll soon start hearing more from McCain about the deficiencies of today’s surge-opposing, drilling-blocking, earmark-loving Congress.
Has the memory of the Clinton impeachment proceedings soured Congress from investigating the Bush Administration?
The first casualty of the Right's quixotic adventure against Clinton was the Independent Counsel law in June 1999. First enacted in 1978 as part of the reforms stemming out of the Watergate scandal, the Independent Counsel law was meant to address the inherent conflict of interest present when an Administration investigates or prosecutes its own officials. By the time the Clinton impeachment saga finished, "Gate" fatigue was so high that neither Republicans nor Democrats mourned the death of this law.
Without the ability to fallback on the Independent Counsel law, the onus once again lay with Congress to investigate wrongdoings within the Administration. Did the Independent Counsel law have the adverse effect of shielding Congress from asserting its Constitutional role as a check and balance to the President? Did the Congressional strength to take the political risk of investigating the President atrophy from lack of use due to the Independent Counsel law?
And did this lack of political strength set the stage for the power grab of the Bush Administration?
Most of us here have a cause that puts us into action in our communities.
And I'm willing to bet that your cause, on some level, puts you at odds with policies of your local, state, or federal government. As a nation conceived through an act of dissent, I view this constructive activism as a true expression of patriotism.
While we continually strive toward that more perfect union, the inertial forces of the status quo stand as a barrier to our goals. But sometimes the entrenched interests of the status quo take on an activism of their own. Disturbingly, this often is expressed through instruments of the state.
On July 17, 2008, the ACLU of Maryland made public documents it received through a Maryland Public Information Act lawsuit. These documents revealed that the Maryland State Police conducted 288 hours of covert and undercover surveillance of groups dedicated to peace and ending the death penalty over a fourteen month period beginning in March 2005.
While other disclosures of surveillance of peace groups have occurred over the past 3 years, these documents show for the first time the detail and persistence of these surveillance programs.
I want to introduce to you the latest, greatest invention in the history of mankind! It slices! It dices! It may even cook your dinner, kiss your wife, and tuck in the kids! It's the amazing CBS Re-Answer-Ator™!
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As happens oftentimes in my life, I found the answer I was looking for from a question I had not asked.
I was reading a bedtime story to my oldest daughter. I had chosen this particular book for bedtime because she was in a "why me" mood. The story contains three classic zen koans, modified for better understanding by young readers.
And while I intended to get her to think about how the "bad luck" of her broken arm opened up an opportunity for the "good luck" of meeting a very dear camp counselor, I found a moment of insight in my own troubled mind later in the book.
And this is how I resolved my anger at Congress (especially Nancy Pelosi) regarding FISA...
I've taken some time to reflect on the Ask the Speaker session from earlier this morning. While I didn't expect Speaker Pelosi to knock my socks off, I did expect SOMETHING from her. I left feeling like I got nothing.
Many of the questions posed to Pelosi revolved around accountability and the lack thereof during the past two years. Time and again Pelosi returned to the idea of electing more Democrats in the House and Senate and electing Obama as President as the remedy. While I obviously stand with her in my desire to elect more Democrats, I couldn't help but feeling that she was laying these failings at OUR feet, that WE were to blame.
Her basic argument was this - Leadership in Congress did what it could given its numbers, but if WE had only gotten more Democrats elected they could have done more. While that may BE true, it doesn't FEEL true. Now I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of "truthiness," but there is something compelling about feeling that our concerns are being heard and acted upon...
Hey Netroots, you're overrated and Obama doesn't need you.
I think that pretty much sums up this piece on Politico.
James Kirchick writes in praise of Obama for dumping the Netroots. Referring to Kos's appearance at the DLC conference recently, Kirchick concludes his piece with a total dismissal of the power of the Netroots.
That the ostensibly pragmatic, centrist voice of the Democratic Party would give a platform to Moulitsas, who has called the party a “divisive, fundamentalist organization willing to sell any and all progressive ideals to the altar of Big Business,” was likely attributable to the DLC’s desire to appease what it believes to be an irreversibly rising force in Democratic politics. Yet its fear is misplaced. For if there had been any doubt before, Obama has confirmed that, in cyberspace, no one can hear you scream.
Have recent events, exemplified by FISA, signified the beginning of the end for the Netroots?
McCAIN: Well, if that scenario evolves, then I think it's obvious that we would have to leave because— if it was an elected government of Iraq— and we've been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government, then I think we would have other challenges, but I don't see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.
AFP reported Tuesday that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
Did you ever notice that McCain never seems to be on camera without Cindy, Lindsey Graham, or Joe Lieberman being within, like, 10 feet of him? Just you keep watching the news and tell me I'm not right. You can't do it. I think McCain might have issues being alone (as alone as you can be with at least 50 people around you all the time, but you know what I mean)...
I think McCain08 misses McCain00. I think that's why he has that misplaced half grin/half grimace and painful laugh. McCain00 still lives and breathes inside McCain08 and it makes him uncomfortable (not like Kuato/George in Total Recall, but you know what I mean)...
No, wait, let me take that back... it must be like Total Recall... why else is McCain going to hire Schwarzenegger's campaign manager (ten thousand McBlogger points to anyone who posts a photoshop of McCain as Kuato/George)...
And, while I have more ruminations about McCain, which I will share shortly, I must say I have a problem with the Netroots Nation agenda, if you will just humor me...
It is becoming clearer by the day that Congress does not fully comprehend what they are authorizing under the FISA Amendment Act. Emblematic of this misunderstanding is this statement from Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-D):
The Act provides standards and procedures for liability protection for electronic communication service providers who assisted the Government between September 11, 2001 and January 17, 2007, when the surveillance program was brought under the FISA Court.
While Rep. Sestak's statement reflects the conventional wisdom surrounding retroactive immunity, it is a fundamental misreading of the Act. The Act does not limit the time period of assistance from electronic communication service providers (ECSP) and does not restrict the government from continuing to ask for that assistance in the future. It effectively allows ECSPs to continue complying with the illegal surveillance requests into perpetuity.
This immunity provision along with other aspects of the Act put the final pieces together for the restoration of the Total Information Awareness program.
Are you in need of a good laugh? Go check out William Kristol's 
